Copernicus: 2026 virtually certain to exceed 1.5°C above pre-industrial
The EU’s Copernicus Climate Change Service said on 6 November that 2026 is virtually certain to finish more than 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels, the second such calendar year after 2024, after the warmest October on record.
Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) said on 6 November that 2026 is virtually certain — over 99% likely in its model — to exceed 1.5°C above the 1850–1900 pre-industrial average, becoming the second calendar year to do so after 2024.
October 2026 was the warmest October on record globally, 1.75°C above pre-industrial levels and the third straight month above 1.5°C. Extra-polar sea surface temperatures hit a record for October, and the Niño 3.4 region anomaly reached an all-time high of 3.21°C as El Niño intensified.
C3S said 2026 is most likely the second-warmest year on record, with about a 20% chance of matching or beating 2024. The four-year average for 2023–2026 is also expected to exceed 1.5°C. A single calendar year above 1.5°C is not the same as the Paris Agreement’s long-term limit.
Copernicus said the prediction rests on ERA5 data up to October and a statistical model fitted to past data, which produces a 95% prediction interval for 2026. It added that 2024 remains the warmest year on record, and the Paris Agreement limit refers to a long-term average rather than a single year.