2026 could be the hottest year on record, scientists say, as COP31 opens
Berkeley Earth says it is 95% confident 2026 will beat the 2024 record, but Copernicus rates that about 20% likely and WMO says 2026 will be among the four warmest years.
The world is on course for its hottest year on record, Berkeley Earth scientists told BBC News, as the COP31 UN climate summit opened on Monday, 9 November 2026, in Antalya, Türkiye. The US research group said that with two months left it is 95% confident 2026 will surpass the previous record set in 2024. Berkeley Earth’s Dr Robert Rohde said: "We have had a run of record warm years."
Other agencies are more cautious. The EU’s Copernicus Climate Change Service said on 5 November that October 2026 was the warmest October on record, at 1.75°C above the pre-industrial level. It said 2026 is virtually certain to exceed 1.5°C, but most likely to be the second-warmest year, with about a 20% chance of tying or exceeding 2024.
The World Meteorological Organization (WMO), in a report published on Monday, said 2026 will be among the four warmest years on record. It put January–September warming at about 1.47°C above the pre-industrial average and said an intensifying El Niño, expected to be the strongest on record by December, is likely to push temperatures higher. WMO chief Celeste Saulo said the findings give "new meaning to the phrase off the charts."
Copernicus noted that other datasets and models may give different probabilities. COP31 runs until 20 November.